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You asked for it, so here it is: Rest of Season defense rankings. We've hit the point of the fantasy season where fantasy managers have a much better sense of where their team stands in regards to the playoffs. Some have all but locked in bids, while others pretty much know their season is over, and likely many more are fighting for the chance to sneak in. Whatever your situation is, it's time to start thinking beyond just one week at a time.
If your roster is set for this week, what does it look like for next? Will you need a better RB play? Should you add a stash TE onto your bench? Do you have a playable DST matchup? Just like every other position on your team, you need to be able to make sure that your DST slot is planned for ahead of time. Sometimes you can weather a bad matchup with a good defense if that means you get a cushy schedule afterward, but if it's a rough road for weeks at a time, it might be best to move on.
Below you'll get my full rest of season defense rankings as well as a matchup chart for Weeks 11 - Week 17. The PLUS matchups (the ones we want) are colored in green, while the BAD matchups (the ones to avoid) are in red. I would recommend using this chart to not only plan a few weeks in advance but also see what pair of defenses might be the best fit for you. For example, if you have the Rams' defense and know you want to hold them for the rest of the season, use the chart to see who has a better Week 12 matchup than the Rams traveling to Green Bay in December. That way you can lock that defense in ahead of time without having to spend precious waiver money or without getting sniped by your leaguemates.
Just like with my weekly rankings, I encourage you to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week(s) goes on. The outlook of some of these teams will change drastically due to injury, like with Carolina and Seattle likely being harder matchups now that Christian McCaffrey and Russell Wilson are back.
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great; however, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 360.2 yards per game and 23.8 points per game. With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up.
BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Rush Win Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
Not much to say here. These five defenses are all currently in my top-10, so they've already proven to be among the best in the league. The Bills remain number one because they have been the best defense in the league for much of the season. They're 1st in yards allowed per play, 1st in turnover rate, 1st in percentage of drives that end in an opposing score, 1st in QB hurry rate, and 2nd in pressure rate. They're just an incredibly well-rounded unit. Although Indianapolis hasn't been easy for opposing defenses, that's a home game for Buffalo at the end of November in what is predicted to be ugly weather, so I have no problem running them out there in that matchup. That means that only the Bucs game could be truly problematic for this defense from here on out.
I know some people may be shocked to see the Cowboys this high but look at that remaining schedule. The only matchup that might really concern you with Dallas is Kansas City in Week 11, as Arizona has been a strong offense but gives up a fair amount of sacks, so isn't a team we need to avoid playing a defense against. The lack of poor matchups is what puts them ahead of some of the other defenses in this tier, like the Bucs, who have been fine on defense this year but not as elite as we came to expect last year. They also have two bad matchups against the Colts and Bills, which puts them just below the Cowboys for me.
The Panthers also have two plus matchups and two poor matchups, but what set the Bucs apart for me is that the Panthers end the season with their two worst matchups. You absolutely can't start the Panthers in your playoffs with matchups against the Bills and Bucs; however, they can certainly be a defense that helps to get you to the playoffs, much like New England, who rounds out the top tier for me. The Patriots have been on fire of late and are a truly elite defense, but the Patriots have a really tough road from Week 12 on, which really hurts their ranking. However, you can play the Patriots against the Titans in Week 12 and then hold onto them for a cake matchup in the finals, if you get there, but you'll need another defense to help carry you through the first few rounds.
This is a tier mixed with defenses that currently rank inside my top-10 for the season and a couple of strong defenses that have mouth-watering end-of-season schedules. The Titans' defense has looked much better over the last few weeks, ranking as the top fantasy DST from Week Five on, and they get no really bad matchups on their schedule the rest of the way; although, the 49ers matchup is one I'd like to avoid if possible. Given how they've performed since their secondary has gotten healthier, I almost thought about having them higher up in my rankings. Heck, maybe I should have, but that one bye week mixed in there does throw a slight wrench into things.
The Eagles are the first surprise for me here because they haven't been consistent on defense this season. However, you can't say anything negative about that schedule, and the Eagles have been the 6th-ranked fantasy defense from Week Five on. They have no bad matchups the rest of the way, based on current fantasy scoring. The Chargers last week was really the only tough matchup left on the Eagles' schedule, and they handled that pretty well. I would feel comfortable starting them most weeks from here on out, but that bye in Week 14 might be the first round of the playoffs in some leagues, so you'll need a contingency plan.
Sliding down into this tier is the Rams, who I know many people have ranked higher, but they haven't really been an elite unit this year. Even if we factor in a bump in production with the addition of Von Miller, there are two things working against the Rams here. First, their bye this week means you have one week where you have no choice but to add another defense. Second, the final three weeks of the season could be really difficult for the Rams with matchups against fully healthy Cardinals and Seahawks teams, plus the Vikings. You can certainly start them in those matchups, and that's why they're in tier two, but it's hard for me to look at their Week 14-16 schedule and say with confidence I'd start them over the defenses above them.
This is a big tier because so many of these defenses are just coin flips at this point. All of these teams have been useful defenses at some point in time this season but none have been overly consistent.
The Steelers seemed to be taking a step forward on defense, but they're the 20th-ranked fantasy unit over the last four weeks, which doesn't really inspire a lot of confidence. We've seen that they have the talent to put up big point totals, but they also get no easy matchups the rest of the season. You could easily make a case that they should be lower down on this list.
The Broncos have no business still playing this well on defense, especially after trading Von Miller, but they are the 9th-ranked defense over the last three weeks and 10th over the last four. They're a bend-but-don't-break unit that has begun to dial up the pressure a bit in recent weeks. It's not a defense I'm incredibly confident in, but the schedule isn't overly difficult for a unit playing solid defense.
The Vikings and Cardinals are so similar to me right now. They have both been elite this year, but they both just suffered massive injuries to elite defensive ends with J.J. Watt for the Cardinals and Danielle Hunter for the Vikings both being ruled out for the season. Now, the teams may prove capable of weathering that storm and push me to move them up in the rankings, but they also both have some tough matchups ahead. The Cardinals are at a bit of a disadvantage because they have yet to have their bye and their two tough matchups both come during playoffs, which could be tough for some fantasy managers to withstand.
Miami has started to come on of late, ranking 4th among all fantasy defenses over the last four weeks. They have become a bit more blitz-heavy, which has helped take some pressure off of a defensive line that doesn't really get a lot of pressure on its own. They have also gotten healthy in the secondary, which has helped curtail the big plays. Then you see the schedule they get over the next five weeks and that should be very enticing for you. I might not play them in those last two games, but they can help a lot of fantasy managers get to the semi-finals.
The Browns only have one good matchup the rest of the way, plus they have their bye still to come, so it's hard to get overly excited about them, especially after the way they looked last week against the Patriots. I just can't see being overly confident in starting them after this week. I also came into this exercise hoping the Saints and Packers would be defenses you could hold the rest of the way, but the matchups are too difficult for that. The Packers are not startable for me over the next two weeks, nor in the fantasy championship, while New Orleans has a brutal four games over the next five. New Orleans is a defense I think you can hold on your bench because their matchups are either cake-walks or unplayable ones, so they are the perfect defense to pair with another to help you through the end of the season.
The Bengals have been inconsistent this year, but have shown that they are capable of solid weeks, which keeps them interesting. They don't have any bad matchups the rest of the way, but they also don't have any weeks I feel good about playing them, which makes them an option only in deeper formats.
The Ravens are such an enigma to me, ranking 15th currently for me on the season. As I said in my rankings for Week 11: "They are 1st in pressure rate, 20th in sacks, 13th in QB hurry rate, 8th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, and 27th in turnover rate. One week the pass rush carries them and they look great, and then the next week, their secondary lets them down and they look average." They have some real problems in the secondary which could be a problem in games against Green Bay, Cincinnati, and the Rams in the weeks ahead. Based on current metrics, they only get one plus matchup the rest of the way, which makes them startable and a fringe "hold" as a defense but not a defense I'm as confident in as the tier above.
These defenses are all payable in certain matchups, so keep an eye on mixing and matching them with some of the defenses in the top tiers.
I wouldn't recommend playing any of these defenses the rest of the way, if you have a choice.
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