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You asked for it, so here it is: Rest of Season defense rankings. We've hit the point of the fantasy season where fantasy managers have a much better sense of where their team stands in regards to the playoffs. Some have all but locked in bids, while others pretty much know their season is over, and likely many more are fighting for the chance to sneak in. Whatever your situation is, it's time to start thinking beyond just one week at a time.
If your roster is set for this week, what does it look like for next? Will you need a better RB play? Should you add a stash TE onto your bench? Do you have a playable DST matchup? Just like every other position on your team, you need to be able to make sure that your DST slot is planned for ahead of time. Sometimes you can weather a bad matchup with a good defense if that means you get a cushy schedule afterwards, but if it's a rough road for weeks at a time, it might be best to move on.
Below you'll get my full rest of season defense rankings as well as a matchup chart for Weeks - Week 16. The PLUS matchups (the ones we want) are colored in green, while the BAD matchups (the ones to avoid) are in red. I would recommend using this chart to not only plan a few weeks in advance but also see what pair of defenses might be the best fit for you. For example, if you have the Rams' defense and know you want to hold them for the rest of the season, use the chart to see who has a better Week 12 matchup than the Rams traveling to Green Bay in December. That way you can lock that defense in ahead of time without having to spend precious waiver money or without getting sniped by your leaguemates.
Just like with my weekly rankings, I encourage you to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week(s) goes on. The outlook of some of these teams will change drastically due to injury, like with Tennessee likely being an easier matchup without Derrick Henry but Carolina and Seattle likely being harder matchups once Christian McCaffrey and Russell Wilson come back.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our Week 9 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great; however, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 360.2 yards per game and 23.8 points per game. With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up.
BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Rush Win Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
Not much to say here. These four defenses are all currently in my top-10, so they've already proven to be among the best in the league. The Bills remain number one because they have five "plus matchups," more than any other team, and really only one problematic matchup when they face the Bucs in Week 14. Although Indianapolis hasn't been easy for opposing defenses, that's a home game for Buffalo at the end of November, so I have no problem running them out there in that matchup.
I know some people may be shocked to see the Cowboys this high but look at that remaining schedule. With Calvin Ridley's status up in the air, the only matchup that might concern you with Dallas is Kansas City in Week 11, and that's only if you think the Chiefs will break out of their funk at some point. The lack of poor matchups is what puts them ahead of Pittsburgh, who has been playing great defense of late and gets only one poor matchup the rest of the way. Now, facing the Chargers, Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs certainly isn't easy but it's not something that terrifies us given the metrics we have through eight weeks.
Rounding out the top tier is the Rams, who haven't been an elite unit this year, but figure to get a big bump with the addition of Von Miller. However, there are two things working against the Rams here. First, they are the only team in this tier that hasn't had their bye week yet, which means you have one week where you have no choice but to add another defense. Second, the final three weeks of the season could be really difficult for the Rams with matchups against the Cardinals, Seahawks (with Russ back), and the Vikings. That's what keeps them 4th for me for the rest of the season.
Another tier where the majority of the defenses currently rank inside my top-10 for the season, so we have that same track record of success. The Bucs come in front here because there is only one matchup on the schedule which really concerns me: the Bills in Week 14. As I mentioned above, the Colts have been a tough matchup for opposing defenses, but the Bucs stop the run extremely well, and that's what the Colts want to do. We have no idea if Calvin Ridley will return for the Week 13 game, but even with him, Atlanta hasn't been a team you need to be scared of this year, so this schedule sets up pretty favorably for the Bucs.
The Panthers also have two plus matchups and two poor matchups, but what set the Bucs apart for me is that the Panthers end the season with their two worst matchups. You absolutely can't start the Panthers in your playoffs with matchups against the Bills and Bucs. I would also have a hard time starting them in Week 10 against the Cardinals if Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are healthy, which means there are three matchups where it's hard to play Carolina without even mentioning their bye in Week 13.
The Eagles are the first surprise for me here because they rank 13th for me going into Week 9 and haven't been consistent on defense this season. However, you can't say anything negative about that schedule. The Eagles have no bad matchups the rest of the way, based on current fantasy scoring. The Chargers this week are really the only tough matchup left on the Eagles' schedule. I would feel comfortable starting them in every other week, but that bye in Week 14 might be the first round of the playoffs in some leagues, so you'll need a contingency plan.
The Vikings and Cardinals are so similar to me right now. They have both been elite this year, but they both just suffered massive injuries to elite defensive ends with J.J. Watt for the Cardinals and Danielle Hunter for the Vikings both being ruled out for the season. Now, the teams may prove capable of weathering that storm and push me to move them up in the rankings, but they also both have some tough matchups ahead. The Cardinals are at a bit of a disadvantage because they have yet to have their bye and their two tough matchups both come during playoffs, which could be tough for some fantasy managers to withstand.
The Ravens start this next tier, ranking 11th currently for me on the season. They've been coming around on defense but also have some real problems in the secondary that could be a problem in games against Minnesota, Green Bay, and Cincinnati in the weeks ahead. Based on current metrics, they really only get one plus matchup the rest of the way, which makes them startable and a fringe "hold" as a defense but not a defense I'm as confident in as the tier above.
The Raiders are one of two teams left that currently rank in my top-10 who are hurt by difficult rest of season schedules. The Raiders really only have two plus matchups left, if you count the Giants this week (which I do). However, having to play the Chiefs twice, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Cleveland isn't exactly an easy stretch. Even if we don't count the Browns as being a tough matchup, that's four matchups that I won't feel comfortable starting the Raiders, no matter how bad Kansas City may currently be looking. The Raiders have looked good so far, so they deserve some kudos there, which is why I have them at 11.
Two big risers here are the Titans and Colts. The Titans defense has looked much better over the last few weeks and gets only one bad matchup on their schedule, which is this week against the Rams. Once that's done, they have a pretty favorable schedule and honestly would be ranked higher on this list if they hadn't been so inconsistent so far this season. Same goes for the Colts, who have always been a better real-life defense than fantasy defense because they are dead last in the NFL in pressure rate. Still, they have four elite matchups coming up on their schedule where they can absolutely be started.
The Colts just can't be played against Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Arizona, which is why they are a perfect defense to pair with the Patriots if you're in deeper leagues. I know people will be upset about my Patriots rankings, but the Patriots are absolutely unplayable after Week 12, which really hurts their ranking. However, you can play the Patriots against the Falcons in Week 11 and Titans (without Derrick Henry) in Week 12 before moving onto Indianapolis (and whatever defense you pick up for Week 14).
The Browns only have two good matchups the rest of the way, plus they have their bye still to come, so it's hard to get overly excited about them, while the Saints are disappointing for me. I came into this exercise hoping they could be a defense to hold the rest of the way, but matchups against Philadelphia, Buffalo, Dallas, and Tampa Bay are not good matchups and really hamper our ability to set-it-and-forget-it with the Saints.
These are the only defenses I would think about playing in any week the rest of the season. The Bengals have been inconsistent this year, but have shown that they are capable of solid weeks, which keeps them interesting. They don't have any bad matchups the rest of the way, but they also don't have any weeks I feel good about playing them.
The Packers are a top-10 team for me so far so I'm surprised to see them this low, but a five-game stretch of Kansas City, Seahawks (likely with Russ back), Vikings, Rams, and a bye is nearly impossible for fantasy purposes. They could have a good fantasy playoff matchup against the Bears and, maybe Browns, but those are the only two matchups where I'd play them.
I wish the Dolphins were better because their schedule is pretty favorable. Still, they rank 28th for me on the season, so there is only so high I can move them up the rankings. Perhaps you can take a shot in some of the plus matchups, but Miami needs to start showing some of last year's magic on defense for me to feel good about that.
The other defenses are all payable in certain matchups, so keep an eye on mixing and matching them with some of the defenses in the top tiers.
I wouldn't recommend playing any of these defenses the rest of the way, if you have a choice.
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