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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Saturday, May 14, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
HOU: Cristian Javier | WSH: Erick Fedde
I'll head to DC for our first play of the day. The Nationals will send Erick Fedde to the mound, who comes into this one 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA. My model grades him to a 43.53 rating today, with a projected 3.92 xFIP and a 16.61% K rate. The Nationals are 3-3 behind him this season but have lost two of his last three starts. He'll be facing an Astros offense that has been clicking of late, coming in with a projected .506 wOBA + ISO and 32.12% hard contact rate.
On the other side of the matchup, the Astros will send Cristian Javier to the mound. Javier, the typical "spot starter" for Houston, comes into this one 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA. My model grades him to a 45.58 rating today, with a projected 3.78 xFIP and 25.7% K rate. The Astros are 2-0 behind him this season.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Astros at -166, good for 62.4% implied odds. My model gives them a 65.68% chance of winning this game, with a final score of 5.47-4.42. The Astros have the clear offensive advantage in this one and should win a battle of the bullpens as well. The Astros bullpen brings in a 4.19 xFIP while Washington's relievers bring in a 4.75 xFIP. The Astros have won five straight as a road favorite, so I like the value we're getting here.
Pick: Astros Money Line (-166) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYY -156
NYY: Jordan Montgomery | CWS: Dallas Keuchel
We'll head to the Windy City for the second play of the day. The Yankees will send Jordan Montgomery to the hill in this one, who comes in 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA. My model grades Monty out to a 50.06 rating, with a projected 4.25 xFIP in this matchup. The Yankees are 2-4 behind Monty but have won two of his last three starts. He's made three starts against the White Sox, one last year and two back in 2017, with the Yankees winning all three of them.
On the other side, the White Sox will send Dallas Keuchel to the mound. Keuchel comes into this one 2-3 with a 6.86 ERA. My model is being somewhat generous to him today, giving him a 42.34 rating and a projected 4.68 xFIP. While that's not great to begin with, Keuchel just isn't the Cy Young arm he used to be. The Yankees have been scoring at will and come into this one with a projected wOBA + ISO of .564, a 38.44% hard contact rate, and a 6.93% HR rate, all three among the highest on the slate.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Yankees at -156, good for 60.94% implied odds. My model gives the Rockies a 62.37% chance of winning, by a final score of 4.91-4.32. The White Sox have dropped the first two games of this series, by a combined score of 25-11. The third game of a series hasn't been too kind to the Sox, who have dropped the third game in six of their last seven series. The Yankees have won eight of the last nine matchups between the two teams, and five of the last six in Chicago. I'll bet on the trend to continue today.
Pick: Yankees Money Line (-156) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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