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Woof. What a week in the NFL. Between the COVID madness, a slew of injuries, and some stud players totally flopping, there was utter chaos in the fantasy landscape this weekend. That carried over to the defensive side of the ball too, where the number one defense in fantasy was the Saints, who played a Tampa Bay team that lost Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette all in the first half of the Sunday night game. The Jets also snuck into the top-10 against Miami, Packers couldn't contain Tyler Huntley and put up zero points, and an Arizona Cardinals team that was fighting for a playoff bye got stomped by the Detroit Lions 30-12.
In the end, we were able to squeak by with five of the top-10 defenses predicted, so it wasn't a total lost week. However, if this week proved anything it was just reiterating that sometimes safe is good. We always want to attack the best matchups and play the best streamers, but in your fantasy playoffs, you also want to ensure that you're getting production out of each spot.
The Patriots this week were a prime example. I did not have them ranked highly because I mentioned that Indianapolis was a really tough matchup. However, the Patriots have been such a good defense that you obviously weren't cutting them, and I had no problem with you starting them if you couldn't find anything better on the wire. At the end of the day, the Patriots DST got three points. It's clearly not a good showing, but it's also not one that will tank your matchup. Good defenses like that have a solid floor, which is why Tampa still put up six points, Denver got five, and Arizona got three despite all of them losing. Meanwhile, if you had chased Las Vegas against a depleted Browns team or Jacksonville against Houston, you would have scored fewer points. Sometimes, the best move is the safe move.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. Especially with all of the COVID-chaos, I will likely be updating that Google Sheet every day to reflect the newest information.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 16 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage, and even to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically, the top-three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success, which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Despite their offense being riddled with injuries, the Tampa Bay Bucs defense still showed up to play on Sunday. They have been playing tremendous football as they continue to get healthier in the secondary and are currently 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate, 5th in sacks, and 7th in turnover rate. That's all tremendous news against a Carolina team that has just done a nosedive of late. All three of their quarterbacks could start on Sunday, and it wouldn't matter to me which one it was; that's how bad they all have been. The Panthers give up the third-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. They have seven turnovers in their last three games and 12 in their last six. They're also 24th in the NFL in sacks allowed. I expect Tampa to feast here.
Yes, Dallas faced a pretty bad Giants team on Sunday, but this defense has also been stellar for much of the season and is the number one defense over the last month, averaging 15 points per game. They are 3rd in turnover rate, 4th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, and 7th in pressure rate. They can get beat by the big play, which is a consequence of their ball-hawking ways, but this is a Washington team that is 24th in the NFL in turnovers and 17th in sacks allowed, so there will be chances to make big plays. Washington has been playing better of late, but they are still giving up the 8th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses and Antonio Gibson suffered a toe injury on Tuesday night that had him in the medical tent and off the field for a while. Washington was also hit hard by COVID this week, so keep an eye on their player activation and Gibson's injury during the week.
I'm going to start off by saying that tier two is a mess and super hard to figure out this week. As of now, I'm going with what has worked for me in the past by focusing on defenses that have shown strong play of late and offenses that are prone to turnovers and sacks.
This Chargers defense is gonna give me a hernia. One week they look like studs, and then the next week they absolutely lay an egg. Obviously, playing against the Chiefs was always going to be tough, so we can give them a pass and as the team with the 5th best pressure rate in the NFL and 9th in turnover rate, I expect them to cause problems for a Houston team that gives up the 2nd-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. However, one thing to keep an eye on is that Joey Bosa was put on the COVID-IR on Monday and will miss the game. Considering he is the team's leading sack artist, with more than double the teammate with the second-most, him not playing takes a huge bite out of the Chargers pass rush, but perhaps not enough to knock them out of the second tier. (UPDATE: Brandin Cooks was placed on the COVID-IR, which takes away Houston's best offensive option. Even with Joey Bosa out, the Chargers are an elite play if Cooks misses).
UPDATE: You can see the full write-up for Miami and New Orleans below, but Miami has moved up into tier two because New Orleans will now start Ian Book at quarterback and has myriad COVID issues. The reason Miami is at five and not higher is that I think New Orleans is going to try and hide Book by using Kamara and Ingram repeatedly. It may lead to a low-scoring game, but I also think it will limit the number of plays run, which means fewer opportunities for Miami to get sacks and turnovers.
We don't really talk about this enough but Cincinnati is currently the 4th seed in the AFC playoffs, and their defense has been strong for much of the season. They're the 6th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 9.8 points per game. They're 8th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, 3rd in sacks, and middle of the pack in turnover rate and pressure rate. All of which adds up to a borderline top-10 defense, which is far better than what we've come to expect from them in years past. Being 3rd in the NFL in sacks is also tremendous for a matchup against a Ravens team that gives up the most sacks in the NFL. Early indications are that Lamar Jackson will not be able to return in time, and while Tyler Huntley looked good against the Packers, the Bengals have a much better pass rush, and I am just simply not confident in Huntley being able to string together two games like that.
Kansas City has righted the ship and won seven straight games. Who would have guessed it? We've long used Kansas City's defense as an example that giving up points doesn't mean you're a bad fantasy unit, and they're proving that again. With the offense starting to put up points again, this defensive front is able to pin their ears back and get after the passer. They are now 4th in the NFL in pressure rate, 2nd in QB hurry rate, and 5th in turnover rate, which has been the result of drastic upticks over the last month. They now get a Pittsburgh team that looks lifeless, even though they did get a win this weekend. The Steelers don't turn the ball over a lot, but they are 19th in the NFL in sacks allowed, 19th in percentage of offensive drives ending in a score, and 24th in yards gained per play, so this is not a potent attack that can keep up with the Chiefs. If Kansas City gets up early, expect them to just hound Ben Roethlisberger into bad throws.
Denver slides into the second tier as another defense that we don't seem to respect enough. Many people, myself included, thought they would turtle up once Von Miller was traded, but this defense continues to play at a high level and their secondary has been tremendous at taking away the opponents' passing game, as evidenced by them putting Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on milk cartons this Sunday. They're the 8th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 8.8 points per game, and they will now face a Las Vegas team that has been pretty abysmal over the last seven games. Yes, I know the Raiders beat a Browns team that was playing practice squad players due to COVID, but I wasn't impressed at all by that game. The Raiders have seven turnovers in their last two games and have only gained over 330 total yards in two of their last seven games. I think this is a boring, low-scoring game, and that favors this Denver defense.
Seattle didn't look great overall against the Rams on Tuesday night, but the defense alone wasn't the issue and they're another team that was limited by COVID spread throughout their team. They were able to keep Los Angeles to 332 yards of total offense while sacking Matthew Stafford four times and turning the ball over once. At the end of the day, getting seven fantasy points against the Rams potent attack isn't too bad, and the Seahawks have scored at least six points in four straight games, which is more than we can say for other teams in this tier. The matchup with the Bears is also a good one. Yes, Justin Fields has flashed his clear upside and can make some impressive plays, but he also can hold the ball for too long and get a little loose with ball security. The Bears are 31st in the NFL in sacks allowed and have turned the ball over 10 times in their last three games. On the season, they give up the 4th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, so this is absolutely a matchup we want to target.
I see some people with the 49ers way up inside the top-5 this week, but I just can't do it. They've been playing tremendous football of late, but they are just the 14th-ranked fantasy defense over the last month, averaging 8.0 points per game. They're 26th in turnover rate, 21st in pressure rate, and 11th in sacks, so they haven't been a consistently productive defense throughout the season and don't get the pressure and turnovers that we want from a fantasy defense. They've been better of late, for sure, forcing at least two turnovers in five of their last six games, but the Titans will get A.J. Brown back this week, which is a huge deal. With A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, the Titans have legitimate weapons for Ryan Tannehill. However, the reason San Francisco stays in the top-10 is that the Titans rank 28th in sacks allowed and have turned the ball over 13 times in their last four games. However, I will caution people that those were all games without A.J. Brown, and I really do think he makes this entire offense more dangerous. (UPDATE: The Titans are without three starting offensive linemen, which I like, but A.J. Brown being back makes me nervous heading into tonight)
Throw away the first meeting between Buffalo and New England. Seriously, just get it out of your head. I don't care that you read that Bill Belichick read The Art of War before the game or that the Patriots only threw the ball three times. None of that matters. Playing a game in 40-50 MPH winds is such a rarity that we need to treat that game as an isolated incident. Not to mention that the circumstances took away the one thing the Bills do well: throw the football. We saw on Saturday what can happen to New England when they are forced to play catch-up and they also just put Kendrick Bourne on the COVID list while N'Keal Harry and Nelson Agholor were injured last week. Meanwhile, the Bills put two of their starting offensive linemen on the COVID-IR before the Panthers game, so both offenses might be short-handed. They may help both defenses, but it's something that we need to keep an eye on as the week progresses. With the AFC East title on the line, I expect both of these teams to come out swinging, which could lead both of them to finish inside the top-10.
If you can't score more than four points against a Washington team that was forced to start Garrett Gilbert, there is only so high I can move you. Philadelphia was solid as a real-life defense, giving up only 237 yards of total offense, but they forced no turnovers and only sacked Gilbert twice. Considering the Giants allow fewer turnovers and sacks on the year than Washington, it has me feeling questionable about even having Philadelphia this high. However, the Giants have turned the ball over seven times in their last three games and both Daniel Jones and Sterling Shepard have now been ruled out for the season. Whether it's Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm under center, this offense has been going backward, which keeps Philadelphia in play but I don't consider them an upside option.
This one is all about the Bucs being short-handed. Without Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, and Mike Evans, the Panthers need to be in play. They have an elite pass rush and Stephon Gilmore can cover Rob Gronkowski like he covered Kyle Pitts when the Panthers played Atlanta. The Panthers are one of my favorite DFS defenses, but I don't really want to trust a team against Tom Brady in the fantasy playoffs.
This Miami and New Orleans game is a game between defenses that have flashed tremendous upside and offenses that have been prone to turning the ball over. The Saints wisely play the most vanilla offense possible on Sunday once the Bucs lost all of their playmakers. They took no chances and went back to the style of offense they were playing with Jameis Winston that made it so hard to score fantasy points against them. While I don't think they'll be able to do that this weekend, I do think the matchup favors the Saints. This Saints offense is 8th in sacks allowed and 10th in total turnovers, which means they don't really give opposing defenses many opportunities for fantasy points. While Miami's defense has been playing good football of late, their offense is 18th in sacks allowed and 26th in turnovers, and they allowed the Jets to finish as a top-10 defense last week. This Saints unit is much better than that Jets unit. I think both teams are playable here, but I'd rather play the Saints' defense. (UPDATE: Besides the update above about Miami, we should also knock New Orleans down a bit because they're missing key defensive players and will also likely not have long drives on offense).
The Packers have been a solid defense of late, ranking 9th over the last month and averaging 8.7 points per game. However, I find them incredibly hard to rank this week because we don't know what's going on with the Browns. When healthy, the Browns are not an offense we really want to attack for fantasy. They give up the 21st most points to opposing fantasy defenses thanks in large part to the fact that they play a ball-control style of offense with Nick Chubb that prevents lots of mistakes. The Browns are 5th-best in the NFL with only 14 turnovers on the entire season, which may make it hard for Green Bay to get the ball loose. Over the last six games, Green Bay has had three games with multiple turnovers and three games with none. In those games with no turnovers, Green Bay finished with five, one, and zero fantasy points in large part because they don't have a great pass rush. So if Cleveland is healthy, and Green Bay is unable to force turnovers, history would tell us that we shouldn't really expect a high total from them. (UPDATE: Jarvis Landry, Baker Mayfield, and starting left tackle Jedrick Wills are all expected to be activated before this game, so the Browns are getting healthy).
Jacksonville is here because it's the Jets. No other real reason. The Jaguars do have a solid defensive line, ranking 15th in pressure rate and 12th in QB hurry rate, which should allow them to force Zach Wilson into poor throws. However, I'd be cautious with how high you want to move the Jaguars as they're not really a good defense overall, and I wouldn't want to rely on them with my fantasy life on the line.
Much like I mentioned with New England at the top of the article, if you need to start the Rams, Cardinals, Vikings, or Colts, I understand. They have all been truly strong defenses this season. However, I would be searching for other options in these matchups. In fact, since the Cardinals get Dallas next week and Minnesota gets Green Bay, it's going to be hard to play either of them the rest of the fantasy playoffs, while the Colts and Rams should be held because they have strong matchups for the fantasy championships
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A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. On the other hand, rostering players in perfect situations can be the ultimately league-winning move for savvy fantasy GMs. Today, let's talk about some potential busts and sleepers that... Read More
A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. On the other hand, rostering players in perfect situations can be the ultimately league-winning move for savvy fantasy GMs. Today, let's talk about some potential busts and sleepers that... Read More
A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. On the other hand, rostering players in perfect situations can be the ultimately league-winning move for savvy fantasy GMs. Today, let's talk about some potential busts and sleepers that... Read More
A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. On the other hand, rostering players in perfect situations can be the ultimately league-winning move for savvy fantasy GMs. Today, let's talk about some potential busts and sleepers that... Read More
A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. On the other hand, rostering players in perfect situations can be the ultimately league-winning move for savvy fantasy GMs. Today, let's talk about some potential busts and sleepers that... Read More
A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. On the other hand, rostering players in perfect situations can be the ultimately league-winning move for savvy fantasy GMs. Today, let's talk about some potential busts and sleepers that... Read More